- New Account - Physical Gold & Silver
- Natural Gas - Price ready to explode?
- Systematic trading (avoiding the BIG losses)
- EUR poised for higher
- NZ GDP Comment
- NZD/USD - Doing all the right things
- USD/JPY - this time it's different!
- Chart of interest - Apple Inc
- Silver Trader - he's back!
- Time to sell crude oil?
- View archive...
We have been asked by a number of you to see if we can locate a physical precious metals product, to enable you to add physical gold or silver to your portfolio, alongside the gold and silver CFD account we currently provide.
It is with great pleasure that I am able to announce that through one of our counterparties we have been able to do this.
Prior to offering this facility to our clients we wanted to do some due diligence to ensure it was competitive and answered a lot of the questions posed to us when asked to locate such a product. Precise details are set out in the account terms and conditions available to you on enquiry.
Please find responses to some of your questions below:
Q: Can I take delivery of the gold or silver if I want to?
A: Yes, we can purchase gold and silver for delivery through this account.
Q: What is the min transaction size?
Q: How competitive is the pricing?
A: Through what is publicly available we have determined that the buy/sell spreads are tighter than mints throughout Australasia, but not as tight as the CFD product.
Q: Is my gold/silver stored outside the banking system?
A: Yes, the bullion is stored at non-bank vaults, and can be bought and stored in a non US location.
Q: Is the bullion held against my own name?
A: You have a direct beneficial interest in the gold. For purchases over US$1m, the gold is held directly in your name, under this amount it is held on your behalf by our counterparty at their account at the vault.
Q: Is my holding pooled with others?
A: No, the holding is allocated, not pooled.
Q: Are there any ongoing fees and what do they include?
A: Yes, there is a 0.95% annual fee charged monthly. This covers Storage, Transport, Insurance and a quarterly audit fee.
These were some of the key questions you asked. This link profiles the product in more detail - Click Here .
If you wish to open a Portfolio account with us to buy and sell precious metals, or would like a copy of the account terms, please contact us on 0800 874 266.
We thank you for your ongoing business, and will keep looking for new product to provide to our advisory clients.
Natural Gas prices have been so low (12 year lows) that many drilling operations have been suspended at a time where much of the United States heavy industry is moving toward converting their energy needs to gas based.
Many analysts have been scratching their heads at the lack of upside in gas prices given that so many conversions to gas are on-going.
Scratch heads no more, natural gas prices look ready to explode (pun intended).
Here is a 10 year chart of weekly Nat Gas. The potential for vastly higher prices is obvious.
A closer look at the recent price action is enlightening. A series of higher weekly lows, a doji rejection of lower levels 5 weeks ago followed by a bullish engulfing week 2 weeks later then the sharp jump on Monday. The charts are crammed with bullish signals.
Feel free to call in for further details on trading this commodity.
Over the years I have developed structure around my trading to avoid waking bolt upright, in a hot sweat at 3.00am wondering if my trading account has been destroyed. Trust me, I’ve had too many of those occurrences early in my trading career and they are to be avoided.
The market is never the most rational of places to risk your capital and strange short term moves always occur. With that in mind I thought last week’s action in the NZD/AUD would be a great example to document.
The method I employ now for my FX trading is for example, that if I am bullish, I will stay long whilst the price action is above a couple of shorter term moving averages. In effect this method is beneficial in two ways, one it creates a point to place my stop loss orders and two it avoids me ‘falling in love’ with a position (We see the pitfalls of trading through the actions of so many trading clients and one thing that often crops up is that the more a client believes in a trade the more likely it is that big losses will occur because the trader thinks his view MUST eventually happen so he won’t let go of the idea when wrong).
I’ve been long NZD/AUD from 0.7730 as I have been particularly opinionated about the prospects for this cross for many months now. My short term moving averages guided me to have my stop loss working at 0.7795. The unexpected happened early last week with a billion dollar flow from one of the local banks repatriating profits back to their Australian parent – the cross fell (alarmingly, to me !) triggering my stop loss order. Whilst obviously disappointed I knew the trade wasn’t necessarily over because, as the moving averages were still pointing up I needed to place a stop entry order above them to return to the trade should the price action reclaim the ‘model’.
Sure enough the big flow only had a fleeting impact on the trend of this cross rate and I was soon knocked back into being long.
Thus as it panned out I was cut from my long at 0.7792 and returned to the trade at 0.7818. So whilst annoying, the wash up means that I have only missed participating in 0.0026 points of this uptrend whilst avoiding the potential for a much bigger loss (it’s the big losses that see traders ruined). And importantly this trade still looks like it has much further to run with Australia likely to cut rates sometime ahead whilst NZ remains firmly on hold.
There’s two obvious ways to trade the market, get on the ‘rich list’ so that you can cope sitting on offside trades until they ultimately come right, or for mere mortals, trade systematically with appropriate risk profiles and watch your trading account slowly build, avoiding major losses along the way.
Avoid the hot sweats, talk to me and learn how.
Base case is that the (almost co-ordinated) central bank actions of the last few weeks support the market like the previous QE programs have.
Under that scenario we would then expect to see ‘risk’ higher.
EUR/USD moved strongly higher in anticipation of the FED and ECB programs so I view this 8 day pull back since the announcement as nothing more than a profit taking correction (buy the rumour, sell the fact).
Yesterday the EUR/USD appears to have reversed (key day reversal – lower low, higher high and close) and the 8 day gentle downtrend appears to have been broken to the top side.
This should be an important indicator for all pairs against USD suggestive that we will see NZD, AUD, GBP, Gold and Silver all (significantly?) higher in coming weeks.
Fig 1 – Daily EUR/USD chart
Fig 2 – A closer look at the downtrend line via the hourly chart
The last confirming level to cement my view will be if/when the EUR/USD lifts above my model level which is currently falling mildly at 1.2965.
I thought this line from Dominick Stephens, Chief Economist, Westpac, is potentially very telling.
|”New Zealand is going into a bulge of stronger GDP growth|
|fuelled by the Christchurch rebuild. It won’t be sustained in|
|the long term, but it’s got a wee while to run yet before the|
|rebuild peaks in 2014/2015.|
I’m very bullish on the NZD’s prospects against all comers.
A seasoned Corporate Treasurer I know well went to a presentation by the RBNZ two weeks ago, and the takeaway from that was, the RBNZ’s believe the export sector is actually holding up very well in the face of current exchange rates. Further, the treasurer said that the RBNZ’s message was consistent with the anecdotes he was hearing from around the country as well. Now the GDP data confirms.
Given the 3 year bulge of growth that the Christchurch rebuild will add, NZ data is going to look very different from the rest of the developed world for quite some time.
Anyone for NZD/AUD at 0.8800, NZD/JPY at 100 ?
Don’t let your thoughts be bogged down by old norms.
I have a technical suite of indicators that I follow very systematically these days. Within my recipe the NZD/USD has been absolutely PERFECT today.
Fig 1 – NZD/USD Daily chart. Kiwi broke the 1 year consolidation triangle back on 11 Sept., rose, and has been consolidating since.
Fig 2 – Short term NZD/USD chart. Shows a perfect ‘strong GDP’ inspired outside range up hour, right out of my proprietary model. PERFECT!
Trade is to be long of NZD/USD with a stop loss at 0.8225
THIS IS AN OUTSTANDING OPPORTUNITY IN MY MIND. NZD/USD to 0.9000 anyone?……there’s this little fundamental thing going on called QE3 (QE Infinity) that might just weaken the USD.
A number of factors cropped up last week that have me thinking USD/JPY may have put in a medium term low.
For a very long time now the JPY has seemingly defied all predictions, continuing to strengthen in the face of some very serious underlying Japanese economic malaise. One of the factors, apart from supposed ‘safe haven’ JPY buying (to be fair I’ve never understood that particular concept with regard to the JPY) which may have caught the market out in the last year or so may have been the boost the Japanese economy received from activity surrounding the Tsunami clean up.
Anyway, things look a little different to me now in the wake of the FED decision of last week. The USD/JPY has long been highly correlated with movements in medium term U.S. interest rates. Last week they rose. It’s my belief that if forthcoming U.S economic data comes in ‘good to solid’ going forward then the market is going to fret that the FED may potentially overinflate the economy and thus will drive medium term rates higher. That’s a definite positive for USD/JPY.
Turning to technical factors a couple of charts support my case.
Fig 1 – Weekly USD/JPY. The base case. Remember my chart of the 5 year downtrend being broken earlier in the year?
Fig 2 – USD/JPY Weekly. A closer look. A potential reversal week in the form of a ‘doji’ where USD/JPY tried to fall but ended up being strongly repulsed from the lows. This indicates solid buying demand and a higher close to this week should confirm the case.
Fig 3 – Chart of Honda v USD/JPY (sourced from the Gartman Letter). This highly correlated overlay suggests that USD/JPY should be higher (or Honda lower of course!).
Lastly, market chatter on Friday had it that the BOJ was checking rates. Now this is a common enough occurrence and doesn’t mean that the BOJ will intervene but I can tell you that intervention doesn’t occur WITHOUT the BOJ first checking rates !
Interestingly it was a VERY poor day for Apple Inc. shares ahead of the expected Sept 12th iPhone 5 release. This is the first major release without Steve Jobs at the helm.
The chart displays a simple ‘key day reversal’ from new highs. Those sceptical of the current Apple Inc. valuation have a lovely clear trading opportunity given the chart signal and impending announcement.
Longstanding clients will of course know the story of the epic run in Silver that this trader had with us between Sep 2009 and May 2010. There has been no better client trade in my 11 years here.
Interestingly he appeared back on the radar last week buying 4 tranches of Silver over the course of the week. Then came Friday’s Jackson Hole announcement and well, as the youngsters say,……..Boom!
I must say the chart looks pretty damn attractive and if PIMCO’s Bill Gross believes that the FED WILL ACT at their next meeting (today he said they will) then that’s good enough for me. Gold and Silver have been the biggest beneficiaries of the FED’s programs in the past. Can we dare to believe that Gold and Silver are destined for new highs?
1) Weekly long term chart of Silver. Multiyear triangle consolidation now broken. (Gold looks very much the same)
2) Daily chart. A closer look at Friday’s action. A technically gorgeous jump off the 10/20 day m.a. band (coincided with my short term model too…) after breaking, then retesting the break, of the mega triangle earlier in the week. Bollingers have splayed and will now make a nice channel higher.
The precious metals just look irresistible right now and are likely the only store of value as we approach what looks like a renewed, and somewhat co-ordinated, global central bank monetary easing campaign (read ECB, FED and probably China too over the next few weeks).
We are specialists in risk management and good broking practice. Call for suggestions on appropriate sized trades for your risk capital.
Simple thesis here.
1) The world’s economic growth is clearly slowing as evidenced by the last 12 months manufacturing index results.
Just look at the trend of the GDP forecasts below…simply a constant series of downgrades.
2) Supply increasing – This little titbit from The Gartman Letter showing how over time market prices dictate outcomes. That is, the old adage that “the cure for high prices is high prices” in as much as high prices ultimately stimulate increased production which in turn brings down prices.
Looking directly at the Crude chart there is the suggestion that Crude prices are beginning to roll over from the classic Fibo retracement of 61.8% of the last down move.
Putting all of the above together the suggestion would be that slowing global demand combined with increased global production has the potential to send crude prices much lower.