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USD/JPY and JPY crosses - is this the retirement trade?

Posted by Graham Parlane on 22 November 2012


The USD/JPY has attained the state that I refer to as ‘trending’. Price pushing up hard and fast against spaying Bollinger Bands . The ‘morning star’ rejection of lower levels that I documented on the 10th of November has been a wonderful indicator.

From observing this technical state in the past I’ve noted that ‘pullbacks against the trend can be quite sharp but they are usually brief by time’ (24/48 hours).

This pair, in my opinion has been incredibly depressed for a number of years, and it could really fly going forward. Why not 100+?

For a bit of perspective (and showing my age) this pair was at 250.00 when I started in FX and had been at 360.00 in the late 1960’s.

USDJPY – click here to view chart

What about Gold (the store of value as central banks globally attempt to inflate their way out of trouble) versus the JPY? Check the 1 year consolidation break out!

XAUJPY – click here to view chart

And NZD/JPY ? The Christchurch rebuild will make NZ’s economics look unlike any other western economy and on the other side of the ledger Japan’s problems (which I’ve documented many times recently) undermines the JPY. 100 on this cross anyone?……………………….and you get paid to hold it!

NZDJPY – click here to view chart

A trade weighted type portfolio of each of these pairs may be vastly rewarding going forward.


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