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team Graham Parlane

NZ GDP Comment

Posted by Graham Parlane on 20 September 2012

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I thought this line from Dominick Stephens, Chief Economist, Westpac, is potentially very telling.

    ”New Zealand is going into a bulge of stronger GDP growth 
fuelled by the Christchurch rebuild. It won’t be sustained in 
the long term, but it’s got a wee while to run yet before the 
rebuild peaks in 2014/2015.  

I’m very bullish on the NZD’s prospects against all comers.

A seasoned Corporate Treasurer I know well went to a presentation by the RBNZ two weeks ago, and the takeaway from that was, the RBNZ’s believe the export sector is actually holding up very well in the face of current exchange rates. Further, the treasurer said that the RBNZ’s message was consistent with the anecdotes he was hearing from around the country as well. Now the GDP data confirms.

Given the 3 year bulge of growth that the Christchurch rebuild will add, NZ data is going to look very different from the rest of the developed world for quite some time.

Anyone for NZD/AUD at 0.8800, NZD/JPY at 100 ?

Don’t let your thoughts be bogged down by old norms.

G.

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