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team Graham Parlane

AUD vulnerable?

Posted by Graham Parlane on 26 August 2012

All

Last week, when detailing my NZDAUD thoughts, I suggested that the AUD was vulnerable due to the market being ‘long’. I posited that the AUD had long been a beneficiary of incoming flows due to its AAA rating, relatively high interest rates and proximity to one of the few engines of global growth being China (read resources boom).

Thus this morning I was pleased to see that the official IMM positioning data confirmed my thoughts as per below

G.

BUZZ-IMM spec AUD longs 4th highest on record

Aug 26 8:20am

  • IMM spec data helps explain EUR/AUD squeeze as AUD longs rose further
  • AUD longs up 20,203 to 86,992, takes them to 4th highest ever in Aug 21 week
  • Suggests there may be more room for squeeze, though trend may be tiring
  • EUR shorts trimmed slightly to 123,932, GBP flips long for 1st time in 3 mths
  • Net USD long vs G10 halved to USD 3.24 bln from 7.69 bln
  • IMM spec data in charts: http://r.reuters.com/taf29s

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